Palin is Rocky, Biden is Apollo Creed

As we watch the debate tonight let's not forget that, in terms of public perception, George Bush won the debates against a man who was so much his intellectual superior that it was like an elementary school kid debating a Harvard professor. He still "won" the debate.

That could happen tonight. It's all about perception. In many ways, the American public celebrates ignorance. George Bush has been partly responsible for this. We also love the underdog. That's why Rocky was such a successful movie. The regular guy from the street who struggled against all odds to defeat the champion. The story of David and Goliath is deeply embedded in our psyche. Almost all of our movies play to this archetype. In some way, our hero is pushed to the edge of extinction, then finds the courage and strength to persevere and emerge victorious. When that happens, we all cheer.

That's the archetype that Sarah Palin is playing to tonight, and it's a powerful one. In fact, she may be going into the debate with an advantage over Joe Biden. As Amy Poehler said on Saturday Night Live, she becomes increasingly adorable under pressure. Most Americans won't be watching a debate tonight. They'll be watching a movie with a hero and a villain. Joe Biden is going to be the villain because Palin has been beaten up so much by the press since the convention that she is like Rocky now - up against the ropes, bloody and groggy, but with just enough of that stuff left in her to deliver that knockout punch and emerge victorious.

She won't do that by taking on Biden with facts, figures or policy specifics. That's a sure way for her to lose, and they know it. She'll do it by being so damn charming and adorable that even her enemies will love her. She'll flash that smile and launch into her good-ole-girl routine. "You betcha, we're going to get this country back on track." She'll deflect any question with something like this: "You know, I respect Senator Biden's 26 years in the Senate, and I would never claim to know as much as he knows about the details of all the policies and legislation that he's been involved in over the years. But, what I do know is that regular Americans are havin' a heckuva hard time just gettin' to work in the morning with these high gas prices. They have to make a choice between fillin' up the gas tank and takin' the kids to a movie or givin' them a big birthday party at Chucky Cheese. Millions of Americans who have been lookin' forward to retirement now have to continue workin' just to make ends meet. The American Dream is slippin' through our fingers, and Senator McCain and I love this country too much to sit back and let that happen.

If she can deliver stuff like that while looking straight into the camera and make enough people believe that she's talking directly to them, it won't matter how stupid she is or how unqualified, she'll win the debate.